Fonte : Belfast Telegraph
Who's facing who in the 10 key Ulster election battlegrounds
By Chris Thornton
04 May 2005
There could be recounts galore when Northern Ireland officials get down to tallying the ballots for Election 2005 on Friday.
This side of polling, so many races look close that at least one-third of the 18 seats being fought could change hands.
The last General Election saw some of the UK's closest contests fought out in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein took Fermanagh-South Tyrone by 53 votes and the UUP held East Antrim by 128 votes. Recounts were held in both areas and in Upper Bann.
The contests may not be so tight this time, but some will see political fighting just as fierce.
UPPER BANN
• David Trimble took over Northern Ireland's largest political party when he became leader of the Ulster Unionist Party in 1995. A decade later he is fighting for his personal and party survival. In 2001, Mr Trimble's majority over DUP candidate David Simpson was 2,058. This time the gap has narrowed considerably - in the 2003 Assembly election, the DUP finished just 386 votes behind. Both unionist parties are claiming the edge. Some SDLP and Alliance voters appear to have supported Mr Trimble in 2001. Whether or not they back him again could be an important factor.
FOYLE
• Nationalism's big battle is being fought between SDLP leader Mark Durkan and Sinn Fein's Mitchel McLaughlin. When John Hume held the seat, victory was a cert for the SDLP. Now that he's retired, Sinn Fein sees its chance and has been pouring resources into the constituency. Again, a big gap between the parties was closed at the 2003 Assembly election. The SDLP's 2001 majority of 11,550 dwindled to just over 1,500 - a difference that Sinn Fein says it is capable of closing with a big turnout of its supporters. There are also suggestions that unionist voters might support Mr Durkan to keep out Sinn Fein, but unionists say they aren't seeing indications that that will happen.
SOUTH ANTRIM
• The rise of the DUP was signalled in 2000 when Rev William McCrea confounded the pundits to take the seat for Ian Paisley's party in a by-election. The UUP's David Burnside took it back in 2001, but he and Mr McCrea are going head to head for the third successive election. Yet again, the 2003 Assembly election signalled what could happen here. The DUP slipped 298 votes in front of the UUP, with more than 700 other anti-Agreement unionist votes there for the asking.
SOUTH BELFAST
• The commanding majority of retiring MP Rev Martin Smyth doesn't matter - this constituency is the scene of one of the most serious unionist fights. Smelling blood, the DUP have campaigned hard to try to push relative unknown Jimmy Spratt ahead of UUP contender Michael McGimpsey. The SDLP's Alasdair McDonnell keeps saying he could take the seat, but he would need a perfect storm - a near equal split of the unionist vote and the collapse of Alex Maskey's Sinn Fein vote - to ride through the middle.
SOUTH DOWN
• Eddie McGrady postponed his expected retirement to fight for the South Down seat and give the SDLP its best chance of victory. He starts as the firm favourite. Sinn Fein has been playing down Caitriona Ruane's chances, possibly in the hope that unionist voters will stay at home rather than back Mr McGrady. This is one area where there is a history of some cross-community voting.
EAST ANTRIM
• The DUP's Sammy Wilson missed out on victory by 128 votes in 2001, then managed his party's vote transfers perfectly in 2003 to capture three of the six Assembly seats. Roy Beggs' hold on the seat for the UUP looks shaky but once again there is a chance that SDLP and Alliance voters who want to keep out the DUP could help him.
NORTH DOWN
• Lady Sylvia Hermon appears to be the safest of the UUP's sitting MPs, but that's not saying much in this election. Peter Weir of the DUP has been given a great chance to capture the seat after the withdrawal of UK Unionist Robert McCartney and the entry of the Alliance Party's David Alderdice, after his party stood aside for Lady Hermon last time around. Alliance supporters could be the key. They delivered Lady Hermon the seat in 2001, but may not appreciate that her party has been linked to Alliance allegations of "dirty tricks".
NEWRY AND ARMAGH
• Seamus Mallon's SDLP bastion is under serious threat from Sinn Fein. Mr Mallon's replacement as SDLP candidate, Dominic Bradley, is the underdog behind Sinn Fein's Conor Murphy.
LAGAN VALLEY
• The MP should remain the same, but the seat will probably go down as a DUP gain. Jeffrey Donaldson switched from the UUP to the DUP weeks after the 2003 Assembly election. If he wins, the size of his majority will be an important indication of how far the DUP has conquered the hearts of former UUP supporters.
FERMANAGH
• The tightest constituency fight in 2001 is unlikely to be close again. The unionist vote in Fermanagh- South Tyrone will split between the DUP and UUP, and the nationalist vote is expected to swing solidly behind the sitting MP, Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew.